How to Use This Report
This report is built for people thinking about running — or already running — in Ontario's October 26, 2026 municipal elections. It compiles what actually happened in 2022, ward by ward, in the province's ten largest cities. Nominations for 2026 opened on May 1, 2026 and close at 2 p.m. on August 21, 2026 (a filing fee is required everywhere, plus 25 endorsement signatures in municipalities of 4,000+ electors), so the window to enter a race is open right now.
If you're a first-time candidate
1. Jump to your city from the table of contents and find your ward in the ward winners table.
2. Look at the winner's vote count — that's your baseline target. In 2022 it took as few as 532 votes to win a Kitchener ward and a median of 11,149 to win a Toronto ward. The "win number" is smaller than most people assume.
3. Check the status column. Incumbents almost always win (87% of council incumbents who ran in these ten cities were re-elected), so open seats are where newcomers break through.
4. Read the margin. Dozens of 2022 races were decided by under 300 votes — a few weekends of canvassing.
How to read the numbers
Turnout is ballots cast as a share of eligible electors. It collapsed almost everywhere in 2022 — plan your vote goal on low turnout, not on registered voters.
Margin is the winner's vote lead over the runner-up. Status flags whether the winner was a returning incumbent, a newcomer in an open seat, or unseated a sitting councillor.
Acclamation means a seat was filled with no vote because only one candidate filed. None of the 150 mayor/council seats in these ten cities was acclaimed in 2022 — but several school-board trustee seats were.
Where a figure could not be verified against official records, you'll see [DATA TO BE VERIFIED — source: city clerk records] rather than a guess. Every section lists its sources.
Turning this into a ground game
The pattern across all ten cities: low turnout + small margins = door-knocking decides races. Take your ward's winning vote count, multiply by 1.5–2× for a safety buffer, and that's roughly how many identified supporters you need. Votera was built for exactly this workflow — cut turf, knock doors, tag supporters, and pull them out on advance-poll days and election day. Learn more at votera.ca or start a free trial at app.votera.ca.
Table of Contents
- Toronto — 25 wards · 29.7% turnout
- Ottawa — 24 wards · 43.8% turnout
- Mississauga — 11 wards · 21.8% turnout
- Brampton — 10 paired-ward seats · 24.6% turnout
- Hamilton — 15 wards · 35.4% turnout
- London — 14 wards · 25.5% turnout
- Windsor — 10 wards · 31.6% turnout
- Markham — 8 wards + 4 at-large · 32% turnout
- Vaughan — 5 wards + 4 at-large · 27.0% turnout
- Kitchener — 10 wards · 20.3% turnout
- Province-wide patterns & what they mean for 2026
- Methodology & sources
Toronto
25 wards · Election day October 24, 2022 · 372 certified candidates city-wide (31 for mayor)
Toronto's 2022 election was a record-low-turnout landslide. Just 563,124 of 1,898,750 eligible electors voted — 29.7%, the lowest turnout in the amalgamated city's history and down from 40.9% in 2018 (the election-night tally was reported as 29.17%; the city's final report rounds to 30%). Candidate nominations fell roughly 40% from 2018. John Tory cruised to a third term with 62.0% — then resigned in February 2023, triggering the June 2023 by-election won by Olivia Chow, who is seeking re-election in 2026. In other words: the 2022 numbers below are the last full ward-by-ward baseline before a substantially reshuffled 2026 race.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Tory | 342,158 | 62.0% | Incumbent · re-elected (resigned Feb 2023) |
| Gil Peñalosa | 98,525 | 17.9% | Urbanist, 8-80 Cities founder |
| Chloe Brown | 34,821 | 6.3% | Policy analyst |
| Blake Acton | 8,893 | 1.6% | Retired police officer |
| Sarah Climenhaga | 6,729 | 1.2% | Transit/safety advocate |
| Tony Luk | 6,662 | 1.2% | Businessman |
2018 comparison: Tory won 63.5% (479,659 votes) against Jennifer Keesmaat — his 2022 share held steady even as total votes collapsed with turnout.
Ward-by-ward winners — Toronto council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Etobicoke North | Vincent Crisanti | 6,815 | 41.1% | +3,406 vs Minhas | New · open seat |
| 2 · Etobicoke Centre | Stephen Holyday | 18,559 | 72.3% | +15,906 vs Yanuziello | Re-elected |
| 3 · Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Amber Morley | 15,271 | 46.4% | +2,013 vs Grimes | Unseated Grimes |
| 4 · Parkdale—High Park | Gord Perks | 11,149 | 35.5% | +1,230 vs Lhamo | Re-elected |
| 5 · York South—Weston | Frances Nunziata | 10,077 | 47.6% | +94 vs Padovani | Re-elected |
| 6 · York Centre | James Pasternak | 12,187 | 75.5% | +10,271 vs Arkin | Re-elected |
| 7 · Humber River—Black Creek | Anthony Perruzza | 8,707 | 61.3% | +5,492 vs C. Mammoliti | Re-elected |
| 8 · Eglinton—Lawrence | Mike Colle | 17,109 | 70.3% | +13,662 vs Sambasivam | Re-elected |
| 9 · Davenport | Alejandra Bravo | 17,009 | 70.7% | +13,817 vs Gonzales | New · open seat |
| 10 · Spadina—Fort York | Ausma Malik | 8,033 | 36.6% | +3,343 vs Engelberg | New · open seat |
| 11 · University—Rosedale | Dianne Saxe | 8,614 | 35.4% | +123 vs Di Pasquale | New · open seat |
| 12 · Toronto—St. Paul's | Josh Matlow | 22,670 | 84.7% | +20,625 vs Ashworth | Re-elected |
| 13 · Toronto Centre | Chris Moise | 10,457 | 48.5% | +6,517 vs Ward | New · open seat |
| 14 · Toronto—Danforth | Paula Fletcher | 20,305 | 74.0% | +18,323 vs Abro | Re-elected |
| 15 · Don Valley West | Jaye Robinson | 16,142 | 74.2% | +13,362 vs Sharp | Re-elected |
| 16 · Don Valley East | Jon Burnside | 8,147 | 44.7% | +4,369 vs Ksiazek | New · open seat |
| 17 · Don Valley North | Shelley Carroll | 12,897 | 71.8% | +10,468 vs Christoff | Re-elected |
| 18 · Willowdale | Lily Cheng | 8,337 | 41.7% | +1,628 vs O'Brien Fehr | New · open seat |
| 19 · Beaches—East York | Brad Bradford | 15,169 | 54.7% | +8,878 vs Worden | Re-elected |
| 20 · Scarborough Southwest | Gary Crawford | 8,216 | 35.1% | +1,280 vs Kandavel | Re-elected |
| 21 · Scarborough Centre | Michael Thompson | 9,977 | 55.3% | +7,499 vs Ayub | Re-elected |
| 22 · Scarborough—Agincourt | Nick Mantas | 8,228 | 48.9% | +5,075 vs Wu | Re-elected |
| 23 · Scarborough North | Jamaal Myers | 5,315 | 51.1% | +2,560 vs Francis | New (incumbent died pre-vote) |
| 24 · Scarborough—Guildwood | Paul Ainslie | 12,483 | 76.5% | +10,663 vs Parker | Re-elected |
| 25 · Scarborough—Rouge Park | Jennifer McKelvie | 14,168 | 72.3% | +10,719 vs Kanakaratnam | Re-elected |
17 incumbents ran; 16 won. Ward 1's Crisanti and Ward 16's Burnside are former councillors who returned via open seats. Ward 23 incumbent Cynthia Lai died three days before election day; under the Municipal Elections Act the race proceeded and votes cast for her were not counted.
Notable ward battles
The closest council race in the city
Speaker Frances Nunziata — on council since 1988 — survived organizer Chiara Padovani's second run by just 94 votes, 10,077 to 9,983 (47.6% vs 47.2%). A handful of streets decided a 34-year career.
Amber Morley unseats Mark Grimes
Morley beat the five-term councillor 15,271 to 13,258 (46.4% vs 40.3%) in Etobicoke—Lakeshore — the lone incumbent loss in all 25 wards, and proof it takes a multi-cycle organizing effort to crack an entrenched seat.
Saxe vs Di Pasquale photo finish
In the open University—Rosedale seat vacated by Mike Layton, former environmental commissioner Dianne Saxe edged school trustee Norm Di Pasquale 8,614 to 8,491 — 35.4% to 34.9% in a crowded progressive field.
Scarborough North's sombre open seat
Incumbent Cynthia Lai died on October 21; her votes were not counted. Jamaal Myers won with 5,315 votes (51.1%) — the lowest winning total in Toronto, in the ward that illustrates how small Scarborough electorates really are.
School-board trustees
Toronto voters also elected trustees for four boards. TDSB (English public) has 22 trustee wards that do not match council wards — some align to a single council ward, others combine two. All 22 were contested in 2022 and 10 of 22 had no incumbent running; sitting chair Alexander Brown lost Ward 12 to Weidong Pei 7,023–6,791. TCDSB (English Catholic) elects 12 trustees, each covering roughly two council wards; its Ward 1 race was certified at a one-vote margin (Joseph Martino 2,148, Robert Pella 2,147) and went to a court-ordered recount in 2023; the recount, completed April 20, 2023, left the result unchanged (Martino 2,148, Pella 2,147). The French boards are tiny electorates: CS Viamonde acclaimed two of its three Toronto-area seats and CSC MonAvenir acclaimed one, while one seat on each board was voided over candidate-eligibility issues and refilled in January 2023 by-elections. Trustee races are the cheapest entry point into Toronto politics — several were won with under 3,000 votes.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Toronto
- Know your win number: the median ward was won with 11,149 votes (range: 5,315 in Scarborough North to 22,670 in Toronto—St. Paul's). Bank 10,000–12,000 identified supporters and you're competitive almost anywhere in the city.
- Open seats are the on-ramp. Eight of nine new councillors won seats with no incumbent; only one incumbent lost. Track retirements and resignations before the August 21, 2026 nomination deadline — that's where 2026's real openings will be.
- Margins reward field work. Two wards were decided by fewer than 125 votes. With 115,899 advance ballots cast in 2022, banking your vote early is a core tactic, not a nice-to-have.
- Turnout fell in every single ward — as low as 22.1% in Humber River—Black Creek. The 2026 electorate will be small and identifiable: a disciplined canvass-and-GOTV operation outperforms broadcast persuasion.
- Consider the trustee route: 10 of 22 TDSB wards were open in 2022 and one TCDSB seat came down to a single vote. It's a genuine pipeline to council.
Sources: City of Toronto certified results, 2022 Municipal Election Official Report & City Clerk's TCDSB Ward 1 recount notice, April 2023 (toronto.ca); Wikipedia, "2022 Toronto municipal election" (results tables cite the City Clerk); Spacing turnout analysis (city open data); CBC News; The Local. Turnout note: 29.17% was the election-night figure; 29.7% reflects the final voters' list (563,124 / 1,898,750).
Ottawa
24 wards (new map — a 24th ward was added for 2022) · First open mayoral race since 1997
Ottawa bucked the provincial trend: turnout went up. 316,260 of 722,227 eligible electors voted — 43.79%, versus 42.55% in 2018, with advance-poll ballots jumping to nearly 85,000 from about 56,000. The election came months after the convoy occupation and Jim Watson's retirement, and it produced the closest mayoral result since 2006: broadcaster Mark Sutcliffe defeated Somerset councillor Catherine McKenney by 42,438 votes. Council turned over massively without a single incumbent losing — nine retirements, McKenney's mayoral run and a newly created ward (Barrhaven East) opened 11 of 24 seats.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sutcliffe | 161,679 | 51.4% | Broadcaster/entrepreneur · first elected office |
| Catherine McKenney | 119,241 | 37.9% | Somerset ward councillor |
| Bob Chiarelli | 15,998 | 5.1% | Former mayor (2001–2006) |
| Nour Kadri | 7,496 | 2.4% | uOttawa professor |
| Mike Maguire | 2,775 | 0.9% | Repeat candidate |
| Graham MacDonald | 1,629 | 0.5% |
2018 comparison: Jim Watson took 71.0% (188,960 votes). Sutcliffe's 42,438-vote margin was a fraction of Watson-era blowouts — Ottawa's mayoralty is competitive again.
Ward-by-ward winners — Ottawa council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Orléans East-Cumberland | Matthew Luloff | 11,919 | 74.2% | +9,543 vs Cantave | Re-elected |
| 2 · Orléans West-Innes | Laura Dudas | 11,821 | 71.4% | +8,512 vs Stinson | Re-elected |
| 3 · Barrhaven West | David Hill | 6,230 | 44.0% | +1,493 vs Simmonds | New · open seat |
| 4 · Kanata North | Cathy Curry | 8,827 | 76.8% | +7,244 vs Copil | Re-elected |
| 5 · West Carleton-March | Clarke Kelly | 2,550 | 27.4% | +243 vs Duguay | New · open seat |
| 6 · Stittsville | Glen Gower | 7,758 | 58.7% | +5,066 vs Duchesne | Re-elected |
| 7 · Bay | Theresa Kavanagh | 12,398 | 82.8% | +10,739 vs Hill | Re-elected |
| 8 · College | Laine Johnson | 8,899 | 52.6% | +3,247 vs McGarry | New · open seat |
| 9 · Knoxdale-Merivale | Sean Devine | 4,812 | 39.2% | +2,248 vs Dean | New · open seat |
| 10 · Gloucester-Southgate | Jessica Bradley | 4,927 | 42.2% | +2,118 vs Mahmoud | New · open seat |
| 11 · Beacon Hill-Cyrville | Tim Tierney | 7,617 | 82.0% | +6,352 vs Gray | Re-elected |
| 12 · Rideau-Vanier | Stéphanie Plante | 4,621 | 37.2% | +323 vs Shantz | New · open seat |
| 13 · Rideau-Rockcliffe | Rawlson King | 8,481 | 80.1% | +7,622 vs Fitzsimmons | Re-elected |
| 14 · Somerset | Ariel Troster | 8,669 | 61.3% | +3,963 vs MacKay | New · open seat |
| 15 · Kitchissippi | Jeff Leiper | 11,055 | 72.0% | +7,808 vs Fitzgerald | Re-elected |
| 16 · River | Riley Brockington | 9,595 | 73.1% | +7,199 vs Sabourin | Re-elected |
| 17 · Capital | Shawn Menard | 11,358 | 78.8% | +9,372 vs Bromwich | Re-elected |
| 18 · Alta Vista | Marty Carr | 6,088 | 47.1% | +1,981 vs Kropp | New · open seat |
| 19 · Orléans South-Navan | Catherine Kitts | 9,466 | 76.5% | +6,750 vs Ashiri | Re-elected |
| 20 · Osgoode | George Darouze | 4,353 | 40.8% | +238 vs Thompson | Re-elected |
| 21 · Rideau-Jock | David Brown | 6,901 | 66.6% | +5,247 vs Brunet | New · open seat |
| 22 · Riverside South-Findlay Creek | Steve Desroches | 5,682 | 67.9% | +4,149 vs Alsalihiy | Open seat (ex-councillor) |
| 23 · Kanata South | Allan Hubley | 5,334 | 33.9% | +1,723 vs Coffin | Re-elected |
| 24 · Barrhaven East | Wilson Lo | 4,403 | 36.8% | +1,423 vs Garrick | New ward |
All 13 incumbents who ran were re-elected. The 2020 ward boundary review added Barrhaven East (Ward 24) and renamed six wards for 2022.
Notable ward battles
The comeback that almost worked
Incumbent George Darouze survived a challenge from Doug Thompson — the ward's long-time former councillor — 4,353 to 4,115 (40.8% vs 38.6%). Ottawa's closest race, and proof rural incumbents can bleed.
Winning a ward with 2,550 votes
In a seven-candidate open field, Clarke Kelly won with just 27.4% — 2,550 votes to Sasha Duguay's 2,307. Ottawa's rural wards have the smallest win numbers in the city.
Core open seat, split field
Stéphanie Plante took the open downtown ward 4,621 to 4,298 (37.2% vs 34.6%) over Laura Shantz after Mathieu Fleury retired — one of two open-seat races decided by under 350 votes.
Two cities, one ballot
McKenney won the convoy-affected core decisively (73.3% in Somerset, 62.2% in Capital) while Sutcliffe swept rural and suburban wards (74.7% in Osgoode, 73.4% in Rideau-Jock) — a reminder that Ottawa campaigns are won ward map first, message second.
School-board trustees
Ottawa elects trustees for four boards, each on zone maps that group the 24 wards. OCDSB (English public) has 12 zones of 1–3 wards; all 12 were contested in 2022 (no acclamations) and seven of twelve trustees were new. OCSB (English Catholic) has 10 zones — all contested in 2022 versus six acclamations in 2018, and two incumbents were defeated. The French boards lean heavily on acclamation: CEPEO filled three of its seven Ottawa zones without a vote, and CECCE five of eight. One storyline drew national attention: Lyra Evans, Canada's first transgender school trustee, was re-elected in OCDSB Zone 6 with 54.5% against a field that included an anti-trans campaigner. For a first run in Ottawa, contested OCSB zones were won with roughly 1,300–4,900 votes; OCDSB zones took 5,800–14,300.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Ottawa
- Win numbers vary 5× across the city: the median winner took 7,688 votes, but West Carleton-March was won with 2,550 while Bay's incumbent took 12,398. Budget your field plan per-ward, not per-city.
- Incumbents went 13-for-13. The 2022 turnover came entirely from 11 open seats. For 2026, monitor retirement signals — an open Ottawa ward is very winnable (two were decided by under 350 votes, and Osgoode's incumbent held on by just 238).
- Ottawa turns out. At 43.8% city-wide — and over 50% in Kitchissippi and Capital — Ottawa's electorate is the largest per ward in this report. Advance voting (~85,000 ballots) is where organized campaigns bank their lead.
- Message must match the map. The 2022 mayoral race split cleanly core-vs-suburban. Pull ward-level results before writing your literature — the same pitch does not work in Somerset and Osgoode.
- Growth areas create seats: Barrhaven East didn't exist before 2022 and was won with 4,403 votes. Fast-growing suburbs have the youngest voter files and weakest incumbency roots.
Sources: City of Ottawa official results (app06.ottawa.ca, as tabulated by Wikipedia's "2022 Ottawa municipal election," CBC and Capital Current); CBC Ottawa "by the numbers"; Capital Current; CTV Ottawa (trustee results); OCDSB/OCSB post-election releases; ottawa.ca ward & school-zone maps.
Mississauga
11 wards · Councillors also sit on Peel Regional Council · 107,310 ballots cast
Mississauga re-elected almost everyone — on the second-lowest turnout in this report. Just 21.84% of 491,260 registered voters cast a ballot, down from 26.49% in 2018. Bonnie Crombie took 78.5% for a third term, and seven of eight incumbent councillors won. The exception was Ward 6, where Ron Starr — docked 60 days' pay after an integrity-commissioner finding that he keyed a fellow councillor's car, a finding he denied — lost badly to Joe Horneck. Note for 2026 planning: Crombie has since left for provincial politics, and Ward 5 councillor Carolyn Parrish won the June 2024 mayoral by-election, so the 2026 ballot starts with a reshaped top of ticket and open-seat ripple effects.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Crombie | 82,736 | 78.5% | Incumbent · re-elected (resigned 2024 for Ontario Liberal leadership) |
| David Shaw | 7,202 | 6.8% | |
| George Tavares | 5,613 | 5.3% | |
| Derek Ramkissoon | 4,012 | 3.8% | |
| Mohsin Khan | 2,866 | 2.7% | |
| Melodie J. Petty | 1,464 | 1.4% |
2018 comparison: Crombie won with 76.7% — her share actually rose in 2022 while raw votes fell with turnout. Carolyn Parrish won the June 2024 mayoral by-election (43,494 votes to Alvin Tedjo's 35,005) after Crombie's resignation.
Ward-by-ward winners — Mississauga council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Dasko | 5,552 | 70.1% | +3,950 vs Goss | Re-elected |
| 2 | Alvin Tedjo | 3,733 | 41.1% | +1,174 vs Shanly | New · open seat |
| 3 | Chris Fonseca | 6,767 | 72.3% | +5,232 vs Tagidou | Re-elected |
| 4 | John Kovac | 5,748 | 67.8% | +4,106 vs Pace Jakobsen | Re-elected |
| 5 | Carolyn Parrish | 5,631 | 67.8% | +4,625 vs Akbar | Re-elected |
| 6 | Joe Horneck | 7,085 | 60.2% | +4,115 vs Starr | Unseated Starr |
| 7 | Dipika Damerla | 4,969 | 55.2% | +2,988 vs Zurek-Silvestri | Re-elected |
| 8 | Matt Mahoney | 8,002 | 80.3% | +6,828 vs Mehta | Re-elected |
| 9 | Martin Reid | 2,793 | 26.0% | +241 vs Dakroub | New · open seat |
| 10 | Sue McFadden | 6,960 | 61.0% | +3,663 vs Bempong | Re-elected |
| 11 | Brad Butt | 3,864 | 41.2% | +1,527 vs Hasan | New · open seat |
Open seats: Ward 2 (Karen Ras resigned mid-term), Ward 9 (Pat Saito retired) and Ward 11 (George Carlson retired). No acclamations in mayor or council races.
Notable ward battles
Horneck unseats Ron Starr
The only incumbent defeat in Mississauga: Joe Horneck won 7,085 to 2,970 (60.2% vs 25.3%) after Starr was placed on leave amid an integrity probe into the repeated keying of councillor Karen Ras's car. Scandal — not challenger strength alone — is what breaks incumbency here.
An 11-way free-for-all
Martin Reid, endorsed by retiring councillor Pat Saito, won with just 2,793 votes (26.0%) over school trustee Nokha Dakroub (2,552). Former MPP Bob Delaney managed only third, and Peter McCallion — Hazel's son — took 636 votes. Open Mississauga seats are wide open.
Parrish, by a mile
Carolyn Parrish took 67.8% (5,631 votes) against 12.1% for her nearest challenger — the base that later powered her 2024 mayoral by-election win. Her move up opened Ward 5 itself, a chain reaction 2026 candidates should study.
Tedjo wins a plurality
Alvin Tedjo won the seat vacated by Karen Ras with 41.1% (3,733 votes) over Sue Shanly's 28.2%. Two years later he was runner-up for mayor — Mississauga ward wins travel.
School-board trustees
Peel District School Board elects six Mississauga trustees, five on paired council wards (e.g., Wards 1&7, 2&8, 6&11) plus a single-ward Ward 5 seat; contested 2022 winners took between 2,190 and 5,069 votes. Dufferin-Peel Catholic DSB elects seven Mississauga trustees — one seat (Wards 5, Thomas Thomas) was acclaimed, and the Wards 2&8 race was decided by just 44 votes (888 to 844). Both French-board seats covering the city — CS Viamonde (Yvon Rochefort) and CSC MonAvenir (Estelle Ah-Kiow) — were acclaimed outright. Trustee contests in Peel are the lowest-vote-count elected offices available: several hundred committed voters can decide one.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Mississauga
- The median ward was won with 5,631 votes — and open seats went for 2,793–3,864. At ~22% turnout, roughly 3,500–4,500 identified supporters wins an open Mississauga ward; 6,000+ makes you nearly unbeatable.
- Don't run at a healthy incumbent. Seven of eight were re-elected with 55–81%. The one defeat required a scandal. Wait for — or scout — the open seat.
- Split fields collapse the win number: Ward 9 was won at 26.0% in an 11-candidate race, by 241 votes. In a crowded open seat, a disciplined 3,000-vote base beats seven better-known rivals.
- Chain reactions are live for 2026: Crombie's exit made Parrish mayor in 2024 and cascaded open seats behind her. Watch councillors eyeing higher office — their wards are your opening.
- The trustee ladder is real: two French-board seats and a DPCDSB seat went by acclamation, one Catholic race closed at 44 votes, and trustee Dakroub nearly jumped straight to council. It's the cheapest credible first campaign in Peel.
Sources: City of Mississauga Official Election Results 2022 (city clerk-certified PDF, mississauga.ca); Wikipedia, "2022 Mississauga municipal election"; City of Mississauga results release (2018 turnout); CBC News / Wikipedia, "2024 Mississauga mayoral by-election" (post-2022 context).
Brampton
10 wards electing 5 City Councillors + 5 Regional Councillors on paired wards (1&5, 2&6, 3&4, 7&8, 9&10) · 87,155 ballots cast
Brampton's structure is unique in this report: every voter elects two councillors — a City Councillor and a Regional Councillor for their ward pair. In 2022, turnout fell hard to 24.56% from 34.5% in 2018. Patrick Brown — months removed from his mid-campaign disqualification from the federal Conservative leadership race — won a second term with 59.7% over city-hall whistleblower Nikki Kaur. Down-ballot, four of the five regional incumbents on the ballot won; the fifth, Gurpreet Singh Dhillon, lost Wards 9&10 by just 227 votes. Three open city-council seats produced tight, crowded races.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Brown | 50,652 | 59.7% | Incumbent · re-elected |
| Nikki Kaur | 21,693 | 25.6% | Former city staffer/whistleblower |
| Bob Singh | 7,166 | 8.4% | |
| Tony Moracci | 3,775 | 4.5% | |
| Vidya Sagar Gautam | 1,398 | 1.7% | |
| Prabh Kaur Mand | 235 | 0.3% |
2018 comparison: Brown first won the mayoralty with 44.4%, defeating incumbent Linda Jeffrey. His 2022 share rose 15 points against a weaker field.
Seat-by-seat winners — Brampton council, 2022
| Seat | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional · Wards 1&5 | Paul Vicente | 7,832 | 55.7% | +4,189 vs Orughu | Re-elected |
| Regional · Wards 2&6 | Michael Palleschi | 9,675 | 56.6% | +7,580 vs Pabla | Re-elected |
| Regional · Wards 3&4 | Martin Medeiros | 7,693 | 53.5% | +4,766 vs Barrett | Re-elected |
| Regional · Wards 7&8 | Pat Fortini | 6,919 | 44.5% | +4,212 vs R.S. Dhillon | Re-elected |
| Regional · Wards 9&10 | Gurpartap Singh Toor | 6,086 | 29.4% | +227 vs G.S. Dhillon | Unseated G.S. Dhillon |
| City · Wards 1&5 | Rowena Santos | 5,143 | 36.1% | +2,051 vs Brooks | Re-elected |
| City · Wards 2&6 | Navjit Kaur Brar | 4,983 | 28.9% | +1,097 vs Chambers | New · open seat |
| City · Wards 3&4 | Dennis Keenan | 4,912 | 34.1% | +313 vs Sanderson | New · open seat |
| City · Wards 7&8 | Rod Power | 4,069 | 26.1% | +1,220 vs Sandhu | New · open seat |
| City · Wards 9&10 | Harkirat Singh | 9,076 | 45.3% | +4,499 vs Gordon-Daniels | Re-elected |
Regional Councillors sit on both Brampton council and Peel Regional Council ("double direct" election). No council acclamations in 2022.
Notable ward battles
The lone incumbent to fall
Gurpartap Singh Toor edged sitting regional councillor Gurpreet Singh Dhillon 6,086 to 5,859 (29.4% vs 28.3%) in a seven-way race — the only incumbent defeat in Brampton, and it happened in the city's fastest-growing wards.
Newcomer holds off a comeback
With incumbent Jeff Bowman out, first-timer Dennis Keenan beat former regional councillor John Sanderson 4,912 to 4,599 (34.1% vs 32.0%) — open seats invite comeback bids, but ground game beat name recognition.
Winning with 26.1%
After Charmaine Williams left for Queen's Park, 13 candidates piled in. Rod Power won with just 4,069 votes; the field even included Williams's sister and her former assistant. The lower the barrier, the more the vote splits.
Brown's turbulent double campaign
Brown entered the federal Conservative leadership race in March 2022, was disqualified in July, then pivoted back and won re-election with 50,652 votes (59.7%) over Nikki Kaur — an unusually low-drag race for a city with this much political churn.
School-board trustees
Peel District School Board elects five Brampton trustees on the same ward pairs as council (winners took 2,482–6,461 votes). Dufferin-Peel Catholic DSB elects three Brampton trustees on grouped wards — and its Wards 1, 3&4 seat was decided by just 20 votes (Anisha Thomas 1,429, Theresa Laverty 1,409), the closest race anywhere on Brampton's 2022 ballot. The CS Viamonde (French public) Peel-wide seat was acclaimed — Yvon Rochefort, per the city's election news release (the certified PDF lists no name) — and the CSC MonAvenir (French Catholic) contest drew only 328 Brampton votes in total (Grenier 263, O'Neil 65).
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Brampton
- Pick your lane: every ward pair elects two councillors. City Councillor races were generally cheaper to win (4,069–9,076 votes) than Regional ones (6,086–9,675) — same doors, different bar.
- The median winner took 6,503 votes at 24.6% turnout. Open city seats fell to candidates with 4,000–5,000 votes and pluralities as low as 26.1%. That's a knockable universe in one season.
- Wards 9&10 are Brampton's swing territory: the regional seat flipped by 227 votes in 2022. High-growth subdivisions mean thin incumbent roots and thousands of new voters every cycle.
- Turnout fell ~10 points — the steepest drop in the GTA outside Toronto. Set your 2026 vote goal off the 2022 baseline (roughly 8,700 ballots per ward-pair race), not 2018's.
- The trustee rung is nearly free: a Catholic trustee seat turned on 20 votes and the French-board seats drew a few hundred voters or none at all. If you're building a bench for 2030, start here.
Sources: City of Brampton 2022 Municipal Election Official Results (brampton.ca certified PDF); Wikipedia, "2022 Peel Region municipal elections"; City of Brampton election news release (trustee acclamations); The Pointer (2018 turnout & Brown 2018 result).
Hamilton
15 wards · Open mayoralty (Fred Eisenberger retired) · 142,058 mayoral votes cast
Hamilton had 2022's marquee change election. Former Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath became the city's first woman mayor by just 1,663 votes over chamber-of-commerce head Keanin Loomis (41.7% to 40.5%), with ex-mayor Bob Bratina a distant third. Council transformed: nine of fifteen ward seats went to new councillors — three sitting incumbents were defeated, six seats were open, and two races were decided by fewer than 85 votes. Turnout slipped to 35.38% from 38.36%, still among the healthiest in this report.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Horwath | 59,216 | 41.7% | Former Ontario NDP leader · first woman mayor of Hamilton |
| Keanin Loomis | 57,553 | 40.5% | Former Chamber of Commerce CEO |
| Bob Bratina | 17,436 | 12.3% | Former mayor & MP |
| Ejaz Butt | 1,907 | 1.3% | |
| Solomon Ikhuiwu | 1,867 | 1.3% | |
| Jim Davis | 1,433 | 1.0% |
2018 comparison: Eisenberger won with 54.0% (74,093 votes). Note: Loomis's share is 40.51% by vote math (CBC); one Wikipedia table prints 40.41%.
Ward-by-ward winners — Hamilton council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Chedoke–Cootes | Maureen Wilson | 6,610 | 75.0% | +5,224 vs MacPherson | Re-elected |
| 2 · Downtown | Cameron Kroetsch | 3,619 | 49.3% | +1,207 vs Farr | Unseated Farr |
| 3 · Hamilton Centre | Nrinder Nann | 4,334 | 50.3% | +1,386 vs Furlan | Re-elected |
| 4 · East Hamilton | Tammy Hwang | 2,101 | 23.0% | +285 vs Tuck | New · open seat |
| 5 · Red Hill | Matt Francis | 4,239 | 43.6% | +2,641 vs Lukasik | New · open seat |
| 6 · East Mountain | Tom Jackson | 6,326 | 63.5% | +4,787 vs Slye | Re-elected |
| 7 · Central Mountain | Esther Pauls | 6,043 | 50.9% | +217 vs Duvall | Re-elected |
| 8 · West/Central Mountain | John-Paul Danko | 5,274 | 62.2% | +3,338 vs Brown | Re-elected |
| 9 · Upper Stoney Creek | Brad Clark | 3,622 | 51.6% | +1,160 vs Lanza | Re-elected |
| 10 · Lower Stoney Creek | Jeff Beattie | 4,236 | 39.7% | +800 vs Milojevic | Unseated Pearson (3rd) |
| 11 · Glanbrook | Mark Tadeson | 2,829 | 38.0% | +83 vs Lauwers | New · open seat |
| 12 · Ancaster | Craig Cassar | 4,960 | 38.8% | +2,359 vs Alkerton | New · open seat |
| 13 · Dundas | Alex Wilson | 7,038 | 57.9% | +1,928 vs VanderBeek | Unseated VanderBeek |
| 14 · West Mountain | Mike Spadafora | 2,610 | 28.5% | +79 vs Damptey | New · open seat |
| 15 · Flamborough | Ted McMeekin | 3,091 | 43.8% | +640 vs Jawed | New · open seat |
Ward 10: incumbent Maria Pearson (on council since 2003) finished third with 3,000 votes (28.1%). Ward 14 opened when incumbent Terry Whitehead withdrew on nomination day.
Notable ward battles
The closest race in the city
Mike Spadafora beat organizer Kojo Damptey 2,610 to 2,531 (28.5% vs 27.6%) for the open West Mountain seat — 79 votes in a splintered field. One more canvass weekend could have flipped it.
Glanbrook goes down to the wire
Mark Tadeson edged Nick Lauwers 2,829 to 2,746 (38.0% vs 36.9%) in the open rural-suburban ward. Two of Hamilton's six open seats were decided by fewer than 85 votes.
Pauls vs Duvall, a two-way heavyweight bout
Incumbent Esther Pauls held off former NDP MP and councillor Scott Duvall 6,043 to 5,826 — 50.9% vs 49.1% in one of only two two-candidate ward races (Dundas was the other). Even star challengers need a bigger field program than name ID.
Downtown, Stoney Creek and Dundas fire their councillors
Cameron Kroetsch beat Jason Farr (since 2010) 49.3%–32.8%; Jeff Beattie toppled Maria Pearson (since 2003), who fell to third; and Alex Wilson — among the youngest and the first openly non-binary councillor — unseated Arlene VanderBeek 57.9%–42.1% in Dundas.
School-board trustees
HWDSB (English public) elects 11 trustees on redrawn 2022 boundaries: council wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 13 and 15 each elect their own trustee, and ward pairs 5&10, 6&9, 8&14 and 11&12 share one. Contested winners ranged from 2,979 to 7,661 votes. HWCDSB (English Catholic) elects nine trustees on its own groupings; the Wards 1, 2&15 seat was acclaimed (Mark Valvasori), and long-time chair Patrick Daly was returned in Ward 7 with 1,491 votes (50.8%); contested Catholic winners ranged from 1,467 to 3,436 votes. One CS Viamonde and one CSC MonAvenir trustee also represent Hamilton within wider regional seats — in 2022 Pierre Gregory was acclaimed (Viamonde) and Marcel Levesque won the MonAvenir seat with 70.5%.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Hamilton
- The median ward was won with 4,239 votes, and Tammy Hwang took Ward 4 with just 2,101 (23.0%). In lower-city wards, 2,500–4,500 identified supporters is a winning universe.
- Hamilton actually fires incumbents — three lost in 2022 (tied with London for the most here). A serious, early-starting challenge is viable, especially where an incumbent's base has aged out.
- Open seats go razor-thin: 79 and 83-vote margins in 2022. If a retirement opens your ward in 2026, assume the race will be decided inside the margin of one good canvass week.
- Citywide races are ward math: Horwath won by 1,663 votes out of 142,058 — roughly 110 votes per ward. Mayoral and trustee campaigns need the same door-level discipline as council runs.
- Watch the generational seats: Tom Jackson has held East Mountain since 1988 and won with 63.5%. When long-tenure wards finally open, they draw the biggest fields — build your organization before the retirement announcement, not after.
Sources: Wikipedia, "2022 Hamilton, Ontario municipal election" (City of Hamilton-sourced tables) cross-checked with CBC Hamilton (mayoral margin, new-council count), City of Hamilton open-data poll-by-poll trustee results, insauga (French-board winners) and CHCH (winners incl. trustees); Wikipedia, "2018 Hamilton, Ontario municipal election." Turnout note: the city's official 2018 figure is 38.36% (its election-night release rounded to 38.4%).
London
14 wards · Open mayoralty (Ed Holder retired) · 71,678 ballots cast — a record low
London swung from electoral pioneer to turnout floor. In 2018 it was the first Canadian city in decades to use ranked ballots; the province then banned them, and the 2022 return to first-past-the-post came with a record-low 25.50% turnout (71,678 of 281,073 eligible) versus roughly 40% in 2018 — a comparison that spans two different voting systems. Deputy mayor Josh Morgan won the open mayoralty in a landslide, but the ward map churned: three incumbents were defeated — one by 34 votes — and eight of fourteen seats changed hands.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 46,283 | 65.7% | Sitting deputy mayor & Ward 7 councillor |
| Khalil Ramal | 15,912 | 22.6% | Former Liberal MPP |
| Sandie Thomas | 2,297 | 3.3% | |
| Sean O'Connell | 1,432 | 2.0% | |
| Johanne Nichols | 1,339 | 1.9% | |
| Daniel Jeffery | 810 | 1.2% |
2018 comparison (*different system): Ed Holder won under ranked ballots with 34.2% of first preferences, elected in round 13 of the count. Morgan's 30,371-vote margin made him London's 65th mayor.
Ward-by-ward winners — London council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hadleigh McAlister | 1,415 | 37.7% | +362 vs Van Holst | Unseated Van Holst |
| 2 | Shawn Lewis | 3,310 | 88.8% | +2,891 vs Yohnicki | Re-elected |
| 3 | Peter Cuddy | 1,433 | 36.2% | +407 vs Wright | New · open seat |
| 4 | Susan Stevenson | 1,064 | 28.3% | +295 vs Fisher | New · open seat |
| 5 | Jerry Pribil | 3,982 | 64.5% | +1,792 vs Pierotti | New · open seat |
| 6 | Sam Trosow | 2,082 | 48.1% | +299 vs Hamou | Unseated Hamou |
| 7 | Corrine Rahman | 3,910 | 55.0% | +1,747 vs Caldwell | New · open seat (Morgan ran for mayor) |
| 8 | Steve Lehman | 3,669 | 69.6% | +2,831 vs McCauley | Re-elected |
| 9 | Anna Hopkins | 4,281 | 62.1% | +2,712 vs Jozic | Re-elected |
| 10 | Paul Van Meerbergen | 2,400 | 41.9% | +939 vs May | Re-elected |
| 11 | Skylar Franke | 3,616 | 57.7% | +1,885 vs McCall | New · open seat |
| 12 | Elizabeth Peloza | 3,400 | 77.2% | +2,859 vs Godwin | Re-elected |
| 13 | David Ferreira | 1,885 | 41.2% | +34 vs Fyfe-Millar | Unseated Fyfe-Millar |
| 14 | Steve Hillier | 1,766 | 46.0% | +228 vs S. Lehman | Re-elected |
All figures from the City Clerk's certified results (October 26, 2022). No council acclamations.
Notable ward battles
Downtown flips by a classroom's worth of voters
David Ferreira unseated incumbent John Fyfe-Millar 1,885 to 1,851 (41.2% vs 40.5%) — the closest council race in any of the ten cities in this report. Thirty-five more door-knocks might have saved the seat.
The cheapest big-city ward in southwestern Ontario
Susan Stevenson won the open East London seat with 1,064 votes (28.3%), 295 ahead of Jarad Fisher. At 25% turnout, a few streets of committed supporters is literally a winning coalition.
A professor topples an incumbent
Western University professor Sam Trosow defeated appointed incumbent Mariam Hamou 2,082 to 1,783 (48.1% vs 41.2%) — one of three incumbent defeats, the most (with Hamilton) of any city here.
Van Holst's nine lives run out
Hadleigh McAlister beat two-term councillor Michael van Holst 1,415 to 1,053 (37.7% vs 28.1%) in a split field — proof that even modest vote totals can end long careers when turnout craters.
School-board trustees
Thames Valley DSB (English public) elects six London trustees across three combined-ward regions, two per region — 2022 winners took 5,142–6,900 votes, and all races were contested. London District Catholic School Board elects five London trustees on grouped wards; the Wards 8, 9 & 10 seat was acclaimed (Linda Steel), and contested seats were won with as few as 484 votes. The French boards are the smallest electorates on the ballot: CSC Providence's London seat was acclaimed (Philippe Morin), and the CS Viamonde multi-county seat was decided by 17 votes region-wide (405–388) — with the London portion literally tied 190–190.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — London
- London has the lowest ward entry costs of any large Ontario city after Kitchener: median winner 2,855 votes, and Ward 4 was won with 1,064. An identified universe of 1,500–3,000 supporters wins most wards.
- Incumbents are genuinely vulnerable here — three lost in 2022, by 34, 299 and 362 votes. If you're challenging, the gap is closable; if you're the incumbent, treat every cycle like an open race.
- Only ~5,100 ballots were cast per ward on average. Persuasion universes are tiny; the campaign that IDs and pulls its vote wins. Advance-poll banking matters disproportionately at 25% turnout.
- Open seats went for pluralities as low as 28–36% — crowded fields split badly in London. Consolidate one neighbourhood coalition early rather than campaigning thin city-wide.
- Trustee races here are micro-elections: an acclaimed Catholic seat, a 484-vote win, and a French-board race tied 190–190. For a first campaign or a bench-building play, this is the lowest rung in the province's southwest.
Sources: City of London Certified Election Results, Oct 26, 2022 (london.ca PDF — all council/trustee figures); Wikipedia, "2022 London, Ontario municipal election" & "2018 London, Ontario municipal election" (ranked-ballot context); Global News (turnout history, new-council count).
Windsor
10 wards · 50,078 ballots cast · 130 of 130 polls reported
Windsor's races are small, sharp and unforgiving. Turnout slipped to 31.57% (from 35.21% in 2018) as Mayor Drew Dilkens won a third term with 52.5% over Ward 4 councillor Chris Holt — a two-way contest that cost Dilkens seven points off his 2018 share. Down-ballot, three wards changed hands: two open seats were won by 28 and 75 votes, and Ward 7's incumbent didn't just lose — he fell to third.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Dilkens | 26,018 | 52.5% | Incumbent · re-elected (margin 6,841) |
| Chris Holt | 19,177 | 38.7% | Ward 4 councillor |
| Matthew Giancola | 2,091 | 4.2% | |
| Benjamin Danyluk | 875 | 1.8% | |
| Ernie "The Baconman" Lamont | 684 | 1.4% | |
| Aaron Day | 511 | 1.0% |
2018 comparison: Dilkens won with 59.4% (31,201 votes). A consolidated single challenger in 2022 cut his share by 6.9 points.
Ward-by-ward winners — Windsor council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fred Francis | 3,481 | 55.7% | +712 vs Renaud | Re-elected |
| 2 | Fabio Costante | 2,181 | 73.9% | +1,855 vs Romano | Re-elected |
| 3 | Renaldo Agostino | 1,075 | 29.6% | +75 vs Yeomans | New · open seat |
| 4 | Mark McKenzie | 1,285 | 22.3% | +28 vs Rondot | New · open seat (Holt ran for mayor) |
| 5 | Ed Sleiman | 1,949 | 48.8% | +697 vs Acton | Re-elected |
| 6 | Jo-Anne Gignac | 3,318 | 48.2% | +1,055 vs Renaud | Re-elected |
| 7 | Angelo Marignani | 2,678 | 36.8% | +430 vs Lemay | Unseated Gill (3rd) |
| 8 | Gary Kaschak | 2,059 | 60.7% | +727 vs Grey-Hall | Re-elected |
| 9 | Kieran McKenzie | 3,261 | 72.4% | +2,391 vs Cheema | Re-elected |
| 10 | Jim Morrison | 1,377 | 29.7% | +138 vs Masanovich | Re-elected |
Ward 7 incumbent Jeewen Gill (elected in a 2020 by-election) finished third with 1,893 votes (26.0%) behind Marignani and Greg Lemay. (Official city PDF figure; one Wikipedia table contains a 1,983 typo.)
Notable ward battles
The narrowest open-seat win in the report
With Chris Holt running for mayor, Mark McKenzie won the eight-candidate scramble 1,285 to Jake Rondot's 1,257 — 22.3% vs 21.8%. Twenty-nine more voters would have rewritten the result.
Downtown decided street by street
Renaldo Agostino took the open downtown ward 1,075 to 1,000 (29.6% vs 27.5%) over Brian Yeomans after Rino Bortolin's exit. Barely a thousand votes wins core Windsor wards.
Marignani over a split field
Angelo Marignani (2,678, 36.8%) beat Greg Lemay (2,248) while incumbent Jeewen Gill sank to third (1,893). When challengers split an anti-incumbent vote, the winner is whoever organizes first.
An incumbent survives by inches
Jim Morrison held on 1,377 to 1,239 (29.7% vs 26.7%) over Mark Masanovich in a fractured field — a reminder that South Windsor's seat is competitive every cycle.
School-board trustees
Greater Essex County DSB (English public) elects six Windsor trustees, two each from three ward groupings (1/2/9, 3/4/10, 5/6/7/8); 2022 winners took 4,005–8,393 votes. Windsor-Essex Catholic DSB elects one trustee per ward pair; the Wards 2&9 race was decided by 28 votes (Joe Iacono 1,121, 50.6%), while the 5&8 and 6&7 pairings were acclaimed — Jason Lazarus and incumbent Kim Bouchard respectively. The French boards are minuscule electorates: CS Viamonde's city-wide seat was decided by 18 votes (Badrieh Kojok, 158 votes, 34.7%), and CSC Providence's seat went to Christine Brooks with 307 of 399 votes.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Windsor
- The median Windsor ward was won with just 2,120 votes, and open seats went for 1,075–1,285. A canvass universe of 2,000 doors covers your whole win number.
- Margins are microscopic: 28, 75 and 138 votes decided three of ten wards. Bank advance votes and run a real election-day pull — that alone is the margin.
- Split fields punish the unorganized: Ward 7's incumbent fell to third as challengers divided the vote. If multiple candidates share your lane, the first to lock in 1,500 IDs wins.
- Two-way mayoral races change the math: Holt's consolidated 38.7% shows a single credible challenger gets much further than a crowded field — relevant to anyone weighing a 2026 mayoral run.
- Trustee seats turn on double digits: a Catholic seat by 28 votes, a French seat by 18 (the winner needed just 158 votes). For first-time candidates in Windsor-Essex, these are the most winnable offices on the ballot.
Sources: City of Windsor Official Results EL220 (citywindsor.ca certified PDF — all races incl. trustees); Wikipedia, "2022 Windsor municipal election" & "2018 Windsor municipal election"; WECDSB trustee roster & local reporting (acclaimed seats); CBC Windsor (ward-flip coverage).
Markham
8 ward councillors + 4 Regional Councillors elected at-large (top finisher becomes Deputy Mayor) · ~68,600 mayoral votes cast
Markham votes online — and re-elects. Fully 93% of 2022 ballots were cast over the internet in Canada's longest-running online municipal voting program (since 2003). Turnout was 32% per the city's certified release (Wikipedia lists 31.17%), down from 38.26% in 2018. Frank Scarpitti won a fifth term in a straight two-way fight against his own deputy mayor, Don Hamilton — and every ward incumbent on the ballot won. The only movement came in two open wards and the at-large regional race, where former Ontario cabinet minister Michael Chan topped the poll to become Deputy Mayor.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Scarpitti | 44,172 | 64.4% | Incumbent · 5th term |
| Don Hamilton | 24,469 | 35.7% | Sitting Deputy Mayor/Regional Councillor |
2018 comparison: Scarpitti won with 74.9% (55,553 votes) — a two-way race and lower turnout trimmed nearly 11 points off his share.
Ward-by-ward winners — Markham council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keith Irish | 6,095 | 74.4% | +3,994 vs Shore | Re-elected |
| 2 | Ritch Lau | 3,012 | 36.4% | +1,146 vs Wang | New · open seat |
| 3 | Reid McAlpine | 5,007 | 56.8% | +3,984 vs Tam | Re-elected |
| 4 | Karen Rea | 8,563 | 92.2% | +7,841 vs Sansanwal | Re-elected |
| 5 | Andrew Keyes | 5,120 | 72.9% | +3,748 vs Sivasubramaniam | Re-elected |
| 6 | Amanda Yeung Collucci | 4,921 | 78.7% | +3,590 vs Soo | Re-elected |
| 7 | Juanita Nathan | 5,388 | 47.8% | +2,740 vs Patel | New · open seat |
| 8 | Isa Lee | 6,549 | 80.8% | +5,909 vs Ratnasingham | Re-elected |
Regional Councillor (at-large, 4 elected of 11): Michael Chan 30,095 (new · Deputy Mayor) · Jim Jones 26,578 (re-elected) · Joe Li 25,823 (re-elected) · Alan Ho 24,735 (moved up from Ward 2). Fifth place: Nirmala Armstrong, 23,183 — 1,552 short.
Notable ward battles
Scarpitti vs his own deputy
Don Hamilton gave up the deputy mayoralty to challenge his long-time colleague and lost 44,172 to 24,469 (64.4% vs 35.7%). Even a sitting deputy mayor couldn't dent a five-term incumbent's machine.
Alan Ho squeaks into the fourth chair
Ward 2's councillor jumped to the regional race and took the final at-large seat with 24,735 votes, keeping former regional councillor Nirmala Armstrong out — her second straight fifth-place finish.
Ritch Lau wins the only crowded open ward
Lau won with 3,012 votes (36.4%) over Yan Wang's 1,866 — the lowest winning total in Markham and the clearest 2026 template: when a councillor moves up, the ward opens at a fraction of the usual cost.
The most lopsided ward in this report
Karen Rea took 8,563 of 9,285 votes in a two-way race. Some Markham wards are effectively uncontestable until the incumbent leaves — spend your energy where the map is open.
School-board trustees
York Region DSB elects four Markham trustees on ward pairs (1&8, 2&6, 3&4, 5&7); 2022 winners took 3,595–6,647 votes, with the closest race decided by 315. York Catholic DSB elects two Markham trustees (Carol Cotton, Wards 1/2/3/6, 2,355 votes; Frank Alexander, Wards 4/5/7/8, 3,015 votes — both three-way races, per the city's certified results). The French boards elect one shared York Region trustee each: CS Viamonde's seat was contested (Stefania Sigurdson Forbes won), while CSC MonAvenir's was acclaimed (Donald Blais).
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Markham
- Campaign for the inbox, not just the doorstep: 93% of Markham ballots are cast online. Your canvass must capture emails/phones and push the voting link during the advance window — that is election day here.
- The median ward was won with 5,254 votes, but the open Ward 2 went for just 3,012 (36.4%). Roughly 3,500 identified supporters makes you competitive in any open Markham ward.
- Ward incumbents went 6-for-6 — with shares of 57–92%. Do not burn a cycle challenging them; track who runs for regional council or retires, because those wards open at half the price.
- The at-large regional race is a different sport: ~24,700 votes citywide to take the fourth seat, with a 1,552-vote cut line. Only attempt it with a city-wide organization or serious name recognition.
- Trustee entry points: YRDSB seats went for 3,600–6,600 votes and a French-board seat was acclaimed outright. A strong school-community network is a real launchpad in Markham.
Sources: City of Markham certified election results release (markham.ca); Wikipedia, "2022 York Region municipal elections" & "2018 York Region municipal elections" (certified tables); Markham Review. Turnout note: city-certified 32% vs Wikipedia infobox 31.17%.
Vaughan
5 ward councillors + 4 Local & Regional Councillors at-large (expanded from 3 for 2022) · 60,685 ballots cast
Vaughan delivered the closest big-city mayoral race in Ontario by raw votes. (Hamilton's was closer in percentage terms.) With Maurizio Bevilacqua retiring, former Ontario Liberal leader Steven Del Duca beat five-term Ward 4 councillor Sandra Yeung Racco by just 851 votes — 38.06% to 36.64% — on 27.03% turnout (one of only two cities in this report where turnout rose, up 0.14 points). Vaughan's first internet-voting rollout saw 60.4% of all ballots cast online during the advance period. And unusually for the GTA: two of the four ward incumbents on the ballot were defeated.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Del Duca | 22,699 | 38.1% | Former Ontario Liberal leader · endorsed by outgoing mayor |
| Sandra Yeung Racco | 21,848 | 36.6% | Five-term Ward 4 councillor |
| Danny DeSantis | 7,591 | 12.7% | |
| Paul Donofrio | 2,697 | 4.5% | |
| Lino Mancinella | 2,427 | 4.1% | |
| Parveen Bola | 1,492 | 2.5% |
2018 comparison: Bevilacqua won with 70.7%. Nine candidates registered for 2022; Deb Schulte withdrew after a cancer re-diagnosis and endorsed Del Duca.
Ward-by-ward winners — Vaughan council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marilyn Iafrate | 8,771 | 64.7% | +6,751 vs Scaramuzzo | Re-elected |
| 2 | Adriano Volpentesta | 7,229 | 53.9% | +3,187 vs Carella | Unseated Carella |
| 3 | Rosanna DeFrancesca | 6,643 | 51.6% | +4,236 vs Nguyen | Re-elected |
| 4 | Chris Ainsworth | 2,705 | 38.7% | +1,132 vs Weinberg | New · open seat (Yeung Racco ran for mayor) |
| 5 | Gila Martow | 6,601 | 54.6% | +1,104 vs Shefman | Unseated Shefman |
Local & Regional Councillor (at-large, 4 elected of 9): Linda D. Jackson 28,398 (re-elected · Deputy Mayor) · Mario Ferri 27,937 (re-elected) · Gino Rosati 27,457 (re-elected) · Mario G. Racco 19,564 (new — the seat added by council expansion). Fifth place: Nick Pinto, 18,467 — 1,097 short.
Notable ward battles
Del Duca by a whisker
22,699 to 21,848 — 1.42 points. On 27% turnout, the mayoralty of a city of 320,000+ came down to fewer than a thousand ballots. The definitive Ontario case study in why GOTV wins citywide races.
Martow retires a council fixture
Former PC MPP Gila Martow beat Alan Shefman — one of Vaughan's longest-serving councillors — 6,601 to 5,497 (54.6% vs 45.4%). Provincial-level name recognition plus ground game flipped a "safe" seat.
Volpentesta unseats Carella
After finishing third in 2018, Adriano Volpentesta returned and beat veteran incumbent Tony Carella 7,229 to 4,042 (53.9% vs 30.1%). Multi-cycle persistence is a legitimate strategy in Vaughan.
One household, two results
Sandra Yeung Racco lost the mayoralty by 851 votes the same night her husband, Mario G. Racco, won the newly created fourth at-large seat with 19,564 votes — 1,097 ahead of Nick Pinto.
School-board trustees
York Region DSB covers Vaughan with three trustee areas: Area 1 (King + Vaughan Ward 1) went to incumbent Nadeem Mahmood with 3,601 votes in the closest YRDSB race locally (240-vote margin); Areas 2 (Wards 2&3) and 3 (Wards 4&5) were won with 7,292 and 6,148 votes. York Catholic DSB elects four Vaughan trustees across three areas (Angela Saggese, Michaela Sonya Barbieri, Angela Grella, Jennifer Wigston) — vote totals [DATA TO BE VERIFIED — source: city clerk records]. CS Viamonde's region-wide seat (administered by Vaughan) was contested; CSC MonAvenir's was acclaimed (Donald Blais).
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Vaughan
- 851 votes decided the mayoralty — and 38.1% won it. In split fields on 27% turnout, the campaign with the best supporter file and pull operation takes city hall. Every ID matters.
- Vaughan fires incumbents: two of four ward incumbents on the ballot lost in 2022. Unlike Markham next door, a well-built challenge here is genuinely viable.
- Bank votes early: 60.4% of all 2022 ballots were cast online during the advance period. By election day, most of Vaughan has already voted — front-load your persuasion and GOTV.
- Ward win numbers: median 6,643, but the open Ward 4 was won with 2,705 (38.7%). When a councillor runs for mayor or regional seat, their ward opens cheap — watch the 2026 nomination list closely.
- The at-large race rewards persistence and coalition: ~19,600 votes took the new fourth seat, with a 1,097-vote cut line. Down-ballot at-large campaigns live or die on name recall across the whole city.
Sources: City of Vaughan official certified results (Clerk Todd Coles, Oct 25, 2022 release) and Vaughan 2022 Returning Officer's Report (turnout, online-voting share); Wikipedia, "2022 York Region municipal elections"; Global News; CP24.
Kitchener
10 wards · Two-tier: voters also elect Waterloo Regional Chair & 4 regional councillors · Lowest turnout in this report
Kitchener is where Ontario's turnout collapse hit hardest — and where a council seat costs the least. Just 20.26% of eligible voters cast ballots, down from 28.22% in 2018. Berry Vrbanovic cruised to a third term with 80.0%, all seven incumbent councillors were re-elected, and the three open wards went to newcomers in races decided by 115–184 votes. Ward 3 was won with 532 votes — the smallest council-seat winning total in this report. Kitchener voters also elected the Waterloo Regional Chair (Karen Redman re-elected region-wide with 72.3%) and four Kitchener regional councillors.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berry Vrbanovic | 26,846 | 80.0% | Incumbent · 3rd term (margin 23,749) |
| Val Neekman | 3,097 | 9.2% | |
| Manikantan Nair | 1,817 | 5.4% | |
| Rehman-Ullah Khan | 1,067 | 3.2% | |
| Milos Sokollu Posavljak | 742 | 2.2% |
2018 comparison: Vrbanovic won with 85.5% (34,983 votes). Kitchener's regional councillors elected in 2022: Colleen James 13,519 · Michael Harris 11,628 · Kari Williams 10,703 · Robert Deutschmann 10,102.
Ward-by-ward winners — Kitchener council, 2022
| Ward | Winner | Votes | Share | Margin vs runner-up | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Davey | 2,375 | 68.7% | +1,671 vs Guthrie | Re-elected |
| 2 | Dave Schnider | 3,284 | 82.0% | +2,868 vs Rabethge | Re-elected |
| 3 | Jason Deneault | 532 | 29.7% | +184 vs Richardson | New · open seat |
| 4 | Christine Michaud | 1,638 | 57.9% | +796 vs Vandonk | Re-elected |
| 5 | Ayo Owodunni | 844 | 31.5% | +120 vs Massimi | New · open seat |
| 6 | Paul Singh | 2,060 | 74.9% | +1,371 vs Arkani | Re-elected |
| 7 | Bil Ioannidis | 1,620 | 41.6% | +404 vs McCrea | Re-elected |
| 8 | Margaret Johnston | 2,596 | 88.3% | +2,252 vs Aftab | Re-elected |
| 9 | Debbie Chapman | 2,276 | 59.9% | +1,302 vs Wallis | Re-elected |
| 10 | Aislinn Clancy | 1,765 | 36.2% | +115 vs Stretch | New · open seat |
All figures from the City Clerk's certified results. Ward 10 note: Clancy has since departed council; runner-up Stephanie Stretch now holds the seat per the city's current council listing.
Notable ward battles
The lowest winning total in this report
Jason Deneault won the open six-way race with 532 votes (29.7%) over Bryan Richardson's 348. At 20% turnout, a Kitchener ward race is decided by a universe smaller than one apartment tower.
Clancy edges Stretch downtown
Aislinn Clancy beat Stephanie Stretch 1,765 to 1,650 (36.2% vs 33.8%) for the open seat — and after Clancy's later departure, Stretch ended up on council anyway. Tight losses build name equity for next time.
Owodunni wins the southwest
Ayo Owodunni took the open ward 844 to 724 (31.5% vs 27.0%) — all three of Kitchener's open wards were decided by fewer than 200 votes.
Same doors, four races
Kitchener voters chose a mayor, ward councillor, regional chair and four regional councillors at once. Regional seats needed ~10,000+ votes across the city — a completely different operation from a 2,000-vote ward campaign.
School-board trustees
Waterloo Region DSB elects four Kitchener trustees at-large city-wide (2022: Joanne Weston 9,302 · Mike Ramsay 9,238 · Meena Waseem 9,104 · Maedith Radlein 7,693, from a 17-candidate field, per the clerk's certified results). Waterloo Catholic DSB elects four trustees for Kitchener+Wilmot: Tracey Weiler 3,660 · Kathy Doherty-Masters 3,327 · Wendy Ashby 2,788 · Renée Kraft 1,833. CSC MonAvenir's multi-county seat drew 420 winning votes (just 91 from Kitchener); the CS Viamonde five-county seat was certified by the City of London: David O'Hara won 405–388, a 17-vote margin (Kitchener's certified share: 46–37). At-large trustee races reward city-wide school-community networks over street-level canvassing.
🎯 Key takeaways for 2026 candidates — Kitchener
- This is the most accessible council in the report: median win 1,913 votes; Ward 3 went for 532. One dedicated canvasser can personally knock the entire win number before Labour Day.
- Open seats are everything: incumbents went 7-for-7 (with 42–88% shares) while all three open wards flipped to newcomers by under 200 votes. Watch the 2026 nomination list for retirements — then move fast.
- Plan for 1-in-5 turnout. Roughly 33,600 Kitchener voters showed up in 2022. Vote goals built on registered-voter counts will massively over-budget your field program.
- Margins of 115–184 votes mean advance voting decides races. Bank every confirmed supporter in the advance window; election day is for pulling the stragglers.
- Know which race you're actually running: ward (≈2,000 votes), regional council (≈10,000+), or at-large trustee. Same city, three different campaign architectures.
Sources: City of Kitchener official results certificates (kitchener.ca, incl. WRDSB/WCDSB/MonAvenir schedules); City of London certified results (CS Viamonde five-county seat); Wikipedia, "2022 Waterloo Region municipal elections" & 2018 edition; CBC Kitchener-Waterloo (turnout).
Province-Wide Patterns — and What They Mean for October 26, 2026
1 · Turnout fell almost everywhere — plan for it
Across all Ontario municipalities, average turnout fell to 32.9% in 2022 from 38.30% in 2018 — a record low, per the Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO). Across the ten cities in this report the simple average was ~29.2%, down ~6 points. Only Ottawa and Vaughan rose.
| City | 2018 | 2022 | Change (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | 40.9% | 29.7% | −11.2 |
| Ottawa | 42.55% | 43.79% | +1.24 |
| Mississauga | 26.49% | 21.84% | −4.7 |
| Brampton | 34.5% | 24.56% | −9.9 |
| Hamilton | 38.36% | 35.38% | −3.0 |
| London* | 39.46% | 25.50% | −14.0 |
| Windsor | 35.21% | 31.57% | −3.6 |
| Markham | 38.26% | 32% | −6.3 |
| Vaughan | 26.89% | 27.03% | +0.14 |
| Kitchener | 28.22% | 20.26% | −8.0 |
| Ontario average (AMO) | 38.30% | 32.9% | −5.4 |
*London's 2018 election used ranked ballots (since banned provincially), so its delta spans two voting systems. Markham shown at the city-certified 32%.
2 · Incumbency is a fortress — but retirement opens the gates
Province-wide, AMO counted 1,791 incumbents seeking the same office in 2022: 80.1% won (up from 76.5% in 2018). First-time candidates won just 28.5% of their races. In our ten cities the fortress was even stronger: 93 council incumbents ran and 81 were re-elected — an 87% success rate — and all six incumbent big-city mayors won. Yet turnover still averaged 42% province-wide (41% across these ten cities' 140 council seats), because the seats that changed hands were overwhelmingly open. The twelve big-city incumbents who did lose — from Mark Grimes in Toronto to Tony Carella and Alan Shefman in Vaughan — mostly faced multi-cycle challengers, scandal, or shifted electorates.
3 · Races are won at the margins — literally
Across these ten cities, 17 council races were decided by 250 votes or fewer — including 28 votes in Windsor Ward 4, 34 in London Ward 13, 79 and 83 in Hamilton, and 94 in Toronto's York South—Weston. Vaughan's mayoralty turned on 851 votes. One trustee seat in Toronto was certified at a one-vote margin, and a Brampton Catholic trustee seat closed at 20. At 2022 turnout levels, the gap between winning and losing is one good month of canvassing.
4 · Acclamations: zero in the big cities, hundreds everywhere else
AMO's final post-election data recorded 553 positions filled by acclamation (of 2,842 elected positions — roughly one in five). Its pre-election data release counted 548 acclaimed council positions including 139 mayors and reeves, up 15–16% over 2018, and 32 councils acclaimed in their entirety — all in municipalities of 10,000 or fewer residents. None of the 150 mayor/council seats in these ten cities was acclaimed — but several school-board seats were, even in Toronto and Mississauga. Ontario averaged only ~2.2 candidates per elected position (6,325 candidates for 2,842 seats): local democracy has room for you.
5 · What it means if you're running in 2026
🎯 The 2026 playbook, in six lines
- The clock is running: nominations opened May 1, 2026 and close at 2 p.m. on Friday, August 21, 2026 (filing fee, + 25 endorsement signatures where 4,000+ electors). Election day is Monday, October 26, 2026. Serious campaigns are already at the doors.
- Set your win number from 2022 ballots cast, not the voters' list. Median winning totals ranged from 1,913 (Kitchener) to 11,149 (Toronto). Multiply your ward's 2022 winner by 1.5× and make that your ID target.
- Hunt open seats. 80–87% of incumbents win; ~42% of seats still turn over. The difference is retirements — watch nomination filings ward-by-ward through August 21 and be ready to pivot.
- Bank votes before election day. Markham cast 93% of ballots online, Vaughan 60% online in advance, Toronto took 115,899 advance ballots, Ottawa ~85,000. The winner is usually decided before e-day morning.
- In crowded open fields, 22–38% wins. Don't chase everyone — consolidate one coalition of 2,000–5,000 (mid-size cities) or 8,000–12,000 (Toronto/Ottawa) committed voters and pull every one of them.
- The trustee ladder is wide open: acclamations and double-digit margins even in the biggest cities. It's a legitimate first campaign — and a bench for 2030.
Methodology & Sources
How this report was compiled. All results were gathered in July 2026 from (in order of precedence): official city-clerk certified results; Wikipedia's 2022 municipal-election pages for each city (whose result tables cite official municipal returns); and contemporaneous news coverage for context and cross-checks. Medians, margins, averages, incumbency rates and the 17-races-under-250-votes count are computed directly from the cited tables. Where sources conflicted we used the official/certified figure and noted the variance (e.g., Windsor Ward 7's third-place total is 1,893 in the official PDF vs a 1,983 typo in one Wikipedia table; Toronto's turnout is 29.17% on the election-night basis and 29.7%/30% on the final voters' list; Hamilton runner-up share 40.51% by vote math vs 40.41% in one printed table; Markham turnout 32% city-certified vs 31.17% on Wikipedia; Vaughan 27.03% official vs 26.96%; 2018 turnout baselines follow official city figures — Hamilton 38.36%, London 39.46%, Mississauga 26.49% — where secondary sources print rounded or variant numbers). Percentages in tables are rounded to one decimal. Where a figure could not be verified, it is flagged [DATA TO BE VERIFIED — source: city clerk records] rather than estimated. No vote count, percentage or candidate name in this report was invented or extrapolated.
Primary sources
- City of Toronto — 2022 Municipal Election Official Report & certified-results news release (toronto.ca)
- Spacing Toronto — "Election voter turnout in 2022" (City of Toronto open data)
- Wikipedia — "2022 Toronto municipal election" & "2022 Toronto mayoral election"
- City of Ottawa — official 2022 results (app06.ottawa.ca), as tabulated in Wikipedia's "2022 Ottawa municipal election"
- CBC Ottawa — "Ottawa's municipal election by the numbers"; Capital Current; CTV Ottawa (trustees); OCDSB & OCSB releases
- City of Mississauga — Municipal Election Official Results 2022 (certified PDF)
- Wikipedia — "2022 Mississauga municipal election"; "2024 Mississauga mayoral by-election"; CBC Toronto
- City of Brampton — 2022 Municipal Election Official Results (certified PDF)
- Wikipedia — "2022 Peel Region municipal elections"; The Pointer (2018 turnout, Peel)
- Wikipedia — "2022 Hamilton, Ontario municipal election" & 2018 edition; CBC Hamilton; CHCH News; Global News
- City of London — Certified Election Results, October 26, 2022 (london.ca PDF)
- Wikipedia — "2022 London, Ontario municipal election" & 2018 edition (ranked-ballot context); Global News London
- City of Windsor — Official Results Report EL220 (citywindsor.ca PDF); Wikipedia Windsor 2022/2018; CBC Windsor
- City of Kitchener — 2022 official results certificates incl. school-board schedules (kitchener.ca); Wikipedia — "2022 Waterloo Region municipal elections" & 2018 edition; CBC Kitchener-Waterloo
- City of Markham — certified 2022 election results release (markham.ca); Markham Review; Wikipedia — "2022 York Region municipal elections" & 2018 edition
- City of Vaughan — certified results release (Oct 25, 2022) & 2022 Returning Officer's Report; Global News; CP24
- Association of Municipalities of Ontario (AMO) — "Analysis of 2022 Municipal Post Election Data" (turnout 32.9% vs 38.30%; incumbent success 80.1%; 553 acclamations; 6,325 candidates / 2,842 positions; 42.0% turnover)
- AMO / Newswire — "Municipal Election Data Now Available" (548 acclaimed positions incl. 139 heads of council; 32 fully acclaimed councils)
- Global News / AMO 2026 election hub / Wikipedia — "2026 Ontario municipal elections" (May 1 – Aug 21, 2026 nomination window; Oct 26, 2026 election day)
- ontarioschooltrustees.org — 2022 trustee election results query (HWCDSB and others)
Prepared by Votera, July 2026. Votera is an independent software company; this report is a public research resource, is not affiliated with or endorsed by any municipality or school board, and should not be treated as official election records. Please verify current ward boundaries and nomination requirements with your municipal clerk before filing.
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